Program

Frontiers of Causal Inference and Machine Learning

July 8-11, 2025

IMT School

📅 July 8

2:00 – 2:30 pm: Institutional greetings

2:30 – 5:30 pm: Plenary lecture by Nathan Kallus (Cornell University)

5:30 - 6:00 pm: Coffee break

📅 July 9

Session 1: 08:30 – 10:30 am

Theme: Public services, networks, and strategic decision-making

Chair: Kenan Huremovic (IMT School)

• A Spatial Evaluation of Essential Citizenship Services at Municipalities’ Level: The Contribution of Network Analysis and ML
  Gianluca Monturano (University of Bari Aldo Moro)

• Mapping Theories of Value: How Causal Diagrams Can Improve Strategic Decision-Making
  Jermain Kaminski (Maastricht University)

• The Impact of Smart Specialization Strategies on Steering Innovation: A Causal Map of EU S3 Policy at the Technology Level
  Alessio Bumbea (Universitas Mercatorum & UNU-MERIT)

• Quantile Preferences in Portfolio Choice: A Q-DRL Approach to Dynamic Diversification
  Attila Sarkany (Charles University & Czech Academy of Sciences)

10:30 - 11:00 am: Coffee break

Session 2: 11:00 am – 1:00 pm

Theme: Causal methods and machine learning techniques

Chair: Giovanni Cerulli (CNR IRCRES)

• Non-Linear Dynamic Factor Analysis with a Transformer Network
  Oliver Snellman (University of Helsinki)

• Grouped Data in Regression Discontinuity Designs
  Tobias Großbolting (Universität Mannheim)

• Labour Effects of Minimum Wage Using a Matrix Completion Approach
  Marco Ventura (Sapienza University of Rome)

• The Heterogeneous Impact of the EU-Canada Agreement with Causal Machine Learning
  Francesca Micocci (University of Rome - Roma Tre)

1:00 - 2:00 pm: Lunch break (On your own)

2:00-3:00 pm Teaching Session: Antonio Zinilli (CNR IRCRES) and Lorenzo Giammei (CNR IRCRES)

The European Research Infrastructure for Science, technology and Innovation policy Studies (RISIS)

3:00 - 3:30 pm: Coffee break

Session 3: 3:30 – 5:30 pm

Theme: Innovation policy, strategy, and text analysis

Chair: Armando Rungi (IMT School)

• Innovation Activities of European Firms under Horizon 2020
  Hong-Ngoc Bui (University of Siena)

• Assessing Circular Economy Integration in SME Innovation: A Text Mining Study of Horizon 2020 Projects
  Loreta Isaraj (CNR IRCrES)

• Predicting and Unpacking Financial Stress in the Philippines: Insights from Interpretable Machine Learning
  Ralph Joshua P. Macarasig (BSP Research Academy)

• Zero Fare, Cleaner Air? The Causal Effect of Luxembourg’s Free Public Transportation Policy on Carbon Emissions
  Sachintha Fernando (Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg)

7:30 pm: Social dinner

📅 July 10

Session 4: 08:30 – 10:30 am

Theme: Inflation, monetary policy, and small open economies

Chair: Antonio Zinilli (CNR IRCRES)

• Tempting FAIT: Flexible Average Inflation Targeting and the Post-COVID U.S. Inflation Surge
  Roberto Duncan (Ohio University)

• Going Viral: Inflation Narratives and the Macroeconomy
  Max Weinig (Universität Hamburg)

• Machine Learning, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy: Can Macroprudential Policy Be Microtargeted?
  Max Berre (Università degli Studi di Milano)

• Is Machine Learning Useful for a Small Open Economy?
  Adám Csápai (University of Economics in Bratislava & Slovak Academy of Sciences)

10:30 - 11:00 am: Coffee break

Session 5: 11:00 am – 1:00 pm

Theme: Social policy, education, health, and demography

Chair: Marianna Marino (IMT School)

The Long Shadow: How Childhood Poverty Shapes the Return on Education
Ade Febriady (University of Groningen)

• Uncovering Sources of Heterogeneity in the Effects of Maternal Smoking on Infants’ Health at Birth
  Johanna Kutz (University of St. Gallen)

• Gender, Time Allocation after Retirement and Healthy Ageing: A Regression Discontinuity Approach
  Marianna Nitti (Sapienza University of Rome)

• Bread & Salt? First Evidence on the Impact of Ukrainian Refugees in the Polish Education System
  Wojciech Szymczak (Institute for Structural Research, and University of Warsaw)

1:00 - 2:00 pm: Lunch break (On your own)

2:00-3:30 pm Teaching Session: Giovanni Cerulli (CNR - IRCRES)

Optimal Policy Learning

Session 6: 3:30 – 5:00 pm

Theme: Financial markets, stock returns, and international investment

Chair: Armando Rungi (IMT School)

• International Reserves and Firm Investment: Identification through Bank Credit Reallocation
  Ju Pyun (Korea University Business School)

• Propensity Score with Factor Loadings: Evaluating the Effect of the Paris Agreement on the Returns of European Stocks
  Andrea Mercatanti (Sapienza University of Rome)

• Monetary policy and labor share. Tracing the transmission dynamics through DML identification.

Eleonora Agostini (Sapienza University of Rome) 

5:00 - 5:30 pm: Coffee break

📅 July 11: Plenary lecture

·        9:00 - 12:00 am: Plenary lecture on Causal Inference by Jeffrey Wooldridge (Michigan State University)